CPI Prints: Hit, Miss, or On-Target. What Happens to Returns on the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100?
CPI Tomorrow
As of writing this, CPI figures will be released tomorrow, Wednesday, October 14 2026.
Analysis and Discussion
So, the holy grail question: do hot, cold, or on-target CPI numbers have any correlation with market returns?
Immediate answer: well, not really.
Observe this table which includes the past 20 CPI prints, if they were hot, cold, or on-target against forecasts, and what the return was for SPX and NDX:
| Release date | CPI month | Core CPI | Headline CPI | S&P 500 return | Nasdaq-100 return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-11 | 2024-11 | On-target | On-target | +0.82% | +1.85% |
| 2025-01-15 | 2024-12 | Cold* | On-target | +1.83% | +2.31% |
| 2025-02-12 | 2025-01 | Hot | Hot | -0.27% | +0.12% |
| 2025-03-12 | 2025-02 | Cold | Cold | +0.49% | +1.13% |
| 2025-04-10 | 2025-03 | Cold | Cold | -3.46% | -4.19% |
| 2025-05-13 | 2025-04 | Cold | Cold | +0.72% | +1.58% |
| 2025-06-11 | 2025-05 | Cold | Cold | -0.27% | -0.37% |
| 2025-07-15 | 2025-06 | Cold | On-target | -0.40% | +0.13% |
| 2025-08-12 | 2025-07 | On-target | On-target | +1.13% | +1.33% |
| 2025-09-11 | 2025-08 | On-target | Hot | +0.85% | +0.60% |
| 2025-10-24 | 2025-09 | Cold | Cold | +0.79% | +1.04% |
| 2026-01-13 | 2025-12 | Cold | On-target | -0.19% | -0.18% |
| 2026-02-13 | 2026-01 | On-target | Cold | +0.05% | +0.18% |
| 2026-03-11 | 2026-02 | On-target | On-target | -0.08% | +0.03% |
| 2026-04-10 | 2026-03 | Cold | Cold | -0.11% | +0.14% |
| 2026-05-12 | 2026-04 | Hot | On-target | -0.16% | -0.87% |
| 2026-06-10 | 2026-05 | Cold | On-target | -1.62% | -1.98% |
| 2026-07-14 | 2026-06 | Cold | Cold | +0.38% | +1.10% |
| 2026-08-12 | 2026-07 | On-target | On-target | +0.26% | +0.74% |
| 2026-09-11 | 2026-08 | Hot | On-target | +0.86% | +0.91% |
As we can see, the greatest offenders (April 2025, a cold CPI but down 3% / 4% days on S&P and Nasdaq respectively), the larger news and sentiment of the day being far more important for traders (the trade war).
Likewise, the September 11th 2025 CPI report ran hot, but the bull rally of that month dominated that day (perhaps, as well as well, that the indices are traditionally bullish on September 11th)
Use the API to see for Yourself
You can get these dates and values with the following curl statement using Hindsight Data's API.
As JSON:
curl --fail-with-body --silent --show-error --compressed --get \
'https://hindsightapi.com/api/getData' \
--header "X-API-Key: ${HINDSIGHT_API_KEY}" \
--data-urlencode 'start_date=2024-12-11' \
--data-urlencode 'end_date=2026-09-11' \
--data-urlencode 'country=US' \
--data-urlencode 'event=CPI' \
--output cpi-prints.json
As CSV:
curl --fail-with-body --silent --show-error --compressed --get \
'https://hindsightapi.com/api/getData' \
--header "X-API-Key: ${HINDSIGHT_API_KEY}" \
--data-urlencode 'start_date=2024-12-11' \
--data-urlencode 'end_date=2026-09-11' \
--data-urlencode 'country=US' \
--data-urlencode 'event=CPI' \
--data-urlencode 'format=csv' \
--output cpi-prints.csv
Note that these outputs will give you only the "previous" "actual" and "forecasted" values, as well as the dates of each print within the range. You'd need to include price data (from something like our AMT JOY dataset or your own historical data) to be able to calculate the returns to this data.